Analysis performed by CatéGPT, the Catholic AI

Conclavoscope - Analysis of Catholic Church Cardinals

Ideological and pastoral positioning of cardinals

Next conclave in:
About this analysis

2025 Conclave: Understanding Trends Within the College of Cardinals

This in-depth analysis of the Catholic Church's cardinal electors provides valuable insight into the ideological and pastoral trends that could influence the upcoming conclave. Our rigorous methodology positions each cardinal on a spectrum from very progressive to very conservative.

Our system positions each cardinal on an ideological axis using six key criteria, each specifically weighted to obtain an overall position out of 100. For each criterion, the value ranges from 0 (very progressive) to 10 (very conservative) and functions as a slider on this ideological axis.

Our scoring system

  • Moral doctrine (25%): Positions on sexuality, family, homosexuality, abortion and other moral issues.
  • Liturgy and tradition (20%): Attachment to traditional liturgy, openness to liturgical innovations, ritual conservatism.
  • Sociopolitical engagement (15%): Positions on social issues, ecology, immigration, international conflicts.
  • Relationship with Pope Francis (20%): Positions in relation to the reforms, synods, and governance style of Francis.
  • Interreligious dialogue (10%): Openness to ecumenism, attitude toward non-Christian religions and religious minorities.
  • Communication and pastoral style (10%): Tone used in public, relationship with media, leadership and administrative style.

Our ideological scale

  • 0-20 Very progressive - Strongly liberal positions on most issues.
  • 21-35 Progressive - Significant openness to change and reform.
  • 36-45 Moderate-progressive - Progressive tendency but with certain traditional positions.
  • 46-55 Moderate - Balance between tradition and reform.
  • 56-65 Moderate-conservative - Conservative tendency with some openings.
  • 66-80 Conservative - Strong attachment to tradition and established teachings.
  • 81-100 Very conservative - Strict defense of traditional doctrine in all areas.
This analysis was performed by CatéGPT, an artificial intelligence specialized in Catholic religious matters. The evaluation is based on public sources and does not claim to represent the personal or private opinions of the cardinals.

Search for a cardinal

Filters

Country (71)
Consistory year
Age range
Number of Cardinals

135

Average ideological position on the progressive (0) - conservative (100) axis

39/100

Dominant Tendency

Progressive

Ideological Distribution
Average by Criterion
Cardinals List
The displayed value is not an election probability but represents the cardinal's position on a progressive (0) to conservative (100) axis. It is a slider indicating ideological positioning. The "Relationship with Pope Francis" criterion assesses whether the cardinal represents a more progressive or more conservative position than that of the late pope, with the latter being arbitrarily placed at the center of the scale (5/10).
Name Total Position Doctrine Liturgy Sociopolitical Relationship with Pope Francis Dialogue Communication Tendency Actions
Raymond Leo Burke United States 96 10 10 9 10 9 9 Very conservative
Robert Sarah Papabile Guinea 88 10 10 8 9 7 7 Very conservative
Antonio Cañizares Llovera Spain 82 10 9 8 8 6 7 Very conservative
Albert Malcolm Ranjith Patabendige Don Papabile Sri Lanka 79 9 10 7 8 6 6 Conservative
Gerhard Ludwig Müller Papabile Germany 79 9 8 7 8 8 8 Conservative
Willem Jacobus Eijk Papabile Netherlands 78 10 9 7 8 5 6 Conservative
Stanisław Ryłko Poland 77 9 8 8 8 6 7 Conservative
Désiré Tsarahazana Madagascar 76 8 7 8 9 7 7 Conservative
Rainer Maria Woelki Germany 68 9 8 3 9 4 6 Conservative
Thomas Christopher Collins Canada 66 9 8 6 6 5 5 Conservative
Péter Erdő Papabile Hungary 65 9 6 8 6 5 5 Moderate-conservative
Timothy Dolan United States 64 9 7 6 6 5 5 Moderate-conservative
Charles Maung Bo Papabile Myanmar 61 8 7 5 7 4 5 Moderate-conservative
James Michael Harvey United States 61 8 7 5 6 5 6 Moderate-conservative
Josip Bozanić Croatia 60 9 7 3 8 3 4 Moderate-conservative
Pierbattista Pizzaballa Papabile Israel 60 8 8 6 6 4 3 Moderate-conservative
Philippe Barbarin France 59 8 7 5 8 2 4 Moderate-conservative
Vincent Nichols United Kingdom 59 8 7 5 6 5 5 Moderate-conservative
Daniel Fernando Sturla Berhouet Papabile Uruguay 58 9 8 5 7 6 6 Moderate-conservative
John Njue Kenya 58 9 7 3 8 2 3 Moderate-conservative
Vinko Puljić Bosnia and Herzegovina 58 9 7 4 6 3 5 Moderate-conservative
Dominique Mamberti France 57 9 8 3 7 2 2 Moderate-conservative
Anders Arborelius Papabile Sweden 56 8 6 4 6 5 5 Moderate-conservative
Giuseppe Betori Italy 56 9 8 3 6 2 3 Moderate-conservative
Fernando Filoni Papabile Italy 55 9 8 2 7 2 2 Moderate
Daniel Nicholas DiNardo United States 53 9 8 2 6 2 2 Moderate
Baselios Cleemis India 51 8 9 2 5 2 3 Moderate
Berhaneyesus Demerew Souraphiel Ethiopia 51 9 8 2 5 2 2 Moderate
Protase Rugambwa Tanzania 51 8 7 4 5 3 3 Moderate
Jean-Pierre Kutwa Ivory Coast 49 9 6 3 5 2 3 Moderate
Philippe Ouédraogo Burkina Faso 48 8 7 3 5 2 3 Moderate
Angelo De Donatis Italy 47 6 8 5 3 4 4 Moderate
Mario Aurelio Poli Argentina 47 8 5 5 3 4 5 Moderate
Fernando Chomalí Chile 46 9 8 2 3 2 2 Moderate
Francisco Robles Ortega Mexico 46 9 8 2 3 2 2 Moderate
Claudio Gugerotti Papabile Italy 45 7 9 2 4 2 2 Moderate-progressive
Emil Paul Tscherrig Switzerland 44 7 8 3 4 2 2 Moderate-progressive
Fridolin Ambongo Besungu Papabile Democratic Republic of the Congo 44 8 7 1 5 2 2 Moderate-progressive
Louis Raphaël I Sako Iraq 44 9 6 2 4 2 2 Moderate-progressive
Virgílio do Carmo da Silva East Timor 44 8 6 3 3 3 4 Moderate-progressive
Frank Leo Canada 43 8 7 2 4 2 2 Moderate-progressive
Giuseppe Petrocchi Italy 43 7 6 2 5 3 3 Moderate-progressive
Gérald Cyprien Lacroix Canada 43 8 7 3 3 2 2 Moderate-progressive
Pietro Parolin Papabile Italy 43 7 6 5 2 4 4 Moderate-progressive
Kazimierz Nycz Poland 42 5 6 4 6 2 3 Moderate-progressive
Kurt Koch Papabile Switzerland 42 5 5 6 5 2 4 Moderate-progressive
Peter Ebere Okpaleke Nigeria 42 7 6 3 4 3 3 Moderate-progressive
Filipe Neri António Sebastião do Rosário Ferrão India 41 8 7 2 3 2 2 Moderate-progressive
Francis Xavier Kriengsak Kovitvanit Thailand 41 7 7 2 4 2 2 Moderate-progressive
François-Xavier Bustillo France 41 7 8 2 3 2 2 Moderate-progressive
Odilo Pedro Scherer Brazil 41 7 6 3 3 3 4 Moderate-progressive
William Goh Singapore 41 7 6 3 4 2 3 Moderate-progressive
Orani João Tempesta Brazil 40 7 6 3 3 3 3 Moderate-progressive
Ignace Bessi Dogbo Ivory Coast 39 8 6 2 3 2 2 Moderate-progressive
Juan de la Caridad García Rodríguez Cuba 39 7 6 3 3 3 2 Moderate-progressive
Manuel do Nascimento Clemente Portugal 39 6 5 3 6 2 2 Moderate-progressive
Oscar Cantoni Italy 39 6 5 3 5 3 3 Moderate-progressive
Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson Papabile Ghana 39 7 6 2 4 2 3 Moderate-progressive
Thomas Aquinas Manyo Maeda Japan 39 7 6 3 3 2 3 Moderate-progressive
Dominique Mathieu Iran 38 6 7 2 4 2 2 Moderate-progressive
George Jacob Koovakad India 38 6 6 3 5 1 2 Moderate-progressive
Luis Cabrera Herrera Ecuador 38 8 6 2 2 3 2 Moderate-progressive
Arlindo Gomes Furtado Cape Verde 37 7 6 2 3 3 2 Moderate-progressive
Francesco Montenegro Italy 37 7 7 1 3 2 2 Moderate-progressive
Rolandas Makrickas Lithuania 37 5 5 4 4 4 3 Moderate-progressive
Jean-Marc Aveline Papabile France 36 5 4 4 4 4 4 Moderate-progressive
Mykola Bychok Australia 36 6 6 2 3 3 3 Moderate-progressive
Carlos Osoro Sierra Spain 35 6 6 3 3 2 2 Progressive
Grzegorz Ryś Poland 35 6 5 3 4 2 2 Progressive
Antoine Kambanda Rwanda 34 7 6 2 2 2 2 Progressive
Chibly Langlois Haiti 34 7 6 1 3 2 2 Progressive
Christophe Pierre France 34 6 5 1 3 4 4 Progressive
Dieudonné Nzapalainga Central African Republic 34 6 6 1 4 2 2 Progressive
Jose Fuerte Advincula 34 7 5 2 3 2 2 Progressive
Vicente Bokalic Iglic Argentina 34 5 5 3 3 4 4 Progressive
Adalberto Martínez Flores Paraguay 33 5 4 2 3 5 5 Progressive
Kevin Farrell United States 33 6 5 3 3 2 2 Progressive
Mario Zenari Italy 33 5 5 2 4 3 3 Progressive
Robert Francis Prevost United States 33 6 5 3 2 3 3 Progressive
Stephen Ameyu Martin Mulla South Sudan 33 5 5 2 4 3 3 Progressive
Stephen Brislin Papabile South Africa 33 4 4 4 4 4 4 Progressive
Wilton Gregory United States 33 6 4 2 2 5 5 Progressive
Álvaro Leonel Ramazzini Imeri Guatemala 33 7 5 1 3 3 2 Progressive
Arthur Roche United Kingdom 32 6 3 4 3 3 3 Progressive
Baldassare Reina Italy 32 6 5 2 3 3 2 Progressive
Giorgio Marengo Mongolia 32 5 6 2 2 3 4 Progressive
Joseph Coutts Pakistan 32 6 5 2 4 1 2 Progressive
Paulo Cezar Costa Brazil 32 5 5 3 3 3 3 Progressive
Soane Patita Paini Mafi Tonga 32 4 5 2 3 5 5 Progressive
Sérgio da Rocha Brazil 32 5 5 3 3 3 3 Progressive
Cristóbal López Romero Morocco 31 5 6 1 2 4 4 Progressive
Lazarus You Heung-sik South Korea 31 6 5 3 2 2 2 Progressive
Leopoldo José Brenes Solórzano Nicaragua 31 6 5 2 3 2 2 Progressive
Ángel Sixto Rossi Argentina 31 6 5 1 3 3 2 Progressive
José Cobo Cano Spain 30 6 5 2 2 3 2 Progressive
Konrad Krajewski Poland 30 5 6 1 3 3 2 Progressive
Américo Alves Aguiar Portugal 29 4 5 3 2 4 4 Progressive
Domenico Battaglia Italy 29 6 6 1 2 2 2 Progressive
Fabio Baggio Italy 29 6 6 1 2 2 2 Progressive
Anthony Poola India 28 6 5 1 2 3 2 Progressive
Antonio dos Santos Marto Portugal 28 4 3 2 4 4 4 Progressive
Juan José Omella Spain 28 5 4 2 2 4 4 Progressive
Mauro Gambetti Italy 28 5 4 2 3 3 3 Progressive
Sebastian Francis Malaysia 28 4 5 3 3 2 3 Progressive
Stephen Chow Sau-yan Hong Kong 28 3 5 2 3 4 5 Progressive
John Ribat Papua New Guinea 27 4 5 1 3 3 4 Progressive
Tarcisio Isao Kikuchi Japan 27 4 5 2 3 2 3 Progressive
Carlos Aguiar Retes Mexico 26 4 5 2 3 2 2 Progressive
Ladislav Nemet Serbia 26 3 4 2 4 3 4 Progressive
Luis José Rueda Aparicio Colombia 26 4 5 2 3 2 2 Progressive
Pablo Virgilio David Philippines 26 4 5 2 3 2 2 Progressive
John Atcherley Dew New Zealand 25 3 4 2 3 4 4 Progressive
Jozef De Kesel Belgium 25 3 4 2 3 4 4 Progressive
Ignatius Suharyo Hardjoatmodjo Indonesia 24 4 5 2 3 1 2 Progressive
Mario Grech Malta 24 3 4 2 2 4 5 Progressive
Ángel Fernández Artime Spain 24 5 5 2 1 2 2 Progressive
Jaime Spengler Brazil 23 4 4 2 3 2 2 Progressive
Jean-Paul Vesco Algeria 23 2 5 2 3 3 4 Progressive
Marcello Semeraro Italy 23 2 5 3 3 3 2 Progressive
Matteo Maria Zuppi Papabile Italy 23 3 5 3 2 2 3 Progressive
Timothy Radcliffe United Kingdom 23 2 4 3 2 4 5 Progressive
João Braz de Aviz Brazil 22 5 3 2 2 2 2 Progressive
Joseph Tobin United States 21 3 4 1 2 4 4 Progressive
José Tolentino de Mendonça Papabile Portugal 21 3 4 3 2 2 3 Progressive
Michael Czerny Canada 21 3 4 1 2 4 4 Progressive
Luis Antonio Tagle Papabile Philippines 20 3 4 3 2 2 2 Very progressive
Augusto Paolo Lojudice Italy 19 4 4 1 2 2 2 Very progressive
Roberto Repole Italy 19 3 4 3 1 3 2 Very progressive
Reinhard Marx Germany 16 2 3 3 2 2 3 Very progressive
Blase Cupich United States 12 3 2 2 1 2 2 Very progressive
Carlos Castillo Mattasoglio Peru 12 3 2 1 2 2 2 Very progressive
Leonardo Ulrich Steiner Brazil 12 2 3 1 2 2 2 Very progressive
Víctor Manuel Fernández Argentina 12 3 2 2 1 2 2 Very progressive
Jean-Claude Hollerich Luxembourg 11 2 3 2 1 2 2 Very progressive
Robert McElroy United States 11 2 3 2 1 2 2 Very progressive
Former Popes

This section presents the theological and pastoral positions of recent popes, for comparison with current cardinal electors.

Name Total Position Doctrine Liturgy Sociopolitical Relationship with Pope Francis Dialogue Communication Tendency Actions
Jorge Mario Bergoglio Pope Argentina 21 3 4 1 5 1 1 Progressive
Joseph Ratzinger Pope Germany 71 9 9 4 8 5 6 Conservative
Karol Wojtyła Pope Poland 63 10 8 3 8 2 3 Moderate-conservative
Top Cardinal Papabili for 2025

These cardinals are considered to have the best chances of becoming the next pope. Their theological profile, pastoral experience, and international standing make them potential candidates to succeed Pope Francis.

Robert Sarah Very conservative
Robert Sarah

Guinea

15 June 1945

Albert Malcolm Ranjith Patabendige Don Conservative
Albert Malcolm Ranjith Patabendige Don

Sri Lanka

15 November 1947

Gerhard Ludwig Müller Conservative
Gerhard Ludwig Müller

Germany

31 December 1947

Willem Jacobus Eijk Conservative
Willem Jacobus Eijk

Netherlands

22 June 1953

Péter Erdő Moderate-conservative
Péter Erdő

Hungary

25 June 1952

Charles Maung Bo Moderate-conservative
Charles Maung Bo

Myanmar

29 October 1948

Pierbattista Pizzaballa Moderate-conservative
Pierbattista Pizzaballa

Israel

21 April 1965

Daniel Fernando Sturla Berhouet Moderate-conservative
Daniel Fernando Sturla Berhouet

Uruguay

4 July 1959

Anders Arborelius Moderate-conservative
Anders Arborelius

Sweden

24 September 1949

Fernando Filoni Moderate
Fernando Filoni

Italy

15 April 1946

Claudio Gugerotti Moderate-progressive
Claudio Gugerotti

Italy

7 October 1955

Fridolin Ambongo Besungu Moderate-progressive
Fridolin Ambongo Besungu

Democratic Republic of the Congo

24 January 1960

Pietro Parolin Moderate-progressive
Pietro Parolin

Italy

17 January 1955

Kurt Koch Moderate-progressive
Kurt Koch

Switzerland

15 March 1950

Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson Moderate-progressive
Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson

Ghana

11 October 1948

Jean-Marc Aveline Moderate-progressive
Jean-Marc Aveline

France

26 December 1958

Stephen Brislin Progressive
Stephen Brislin

South Africa

24 September 1956

Matteo Maria Zuppi Progressive
Matteo Maria Zuppi

Italy

11 October 1955

José Tolentino de Mendonça Progressive
José Tolentino de Mendonça

Portugal

15 December 1965

Luis Antonio Tagle Very progressive
Luis Antonio Tagle

Philippines

21 June 1957

FAQ

The Conclavoscope is an analytical tool that visualizes the ideological and pastoral positioning of cardinal electors for the upcoming conclave. It uses a scoring system on different criteria to evaluate the tendencies of each cardinal.

Each cardinal is analyzed according to six criteria: moral doctrine, liturgical approach, sociopolitical engagement, relationship with Pope Francis, interreligious dialogue, and communication style. These analyses are based on their public statements and pastoral actions.

A "papabile" is a cardinal considered to have a good chance of being elected pope in a conclave. The Italian term literally means "popeable" or "pope-able". These cardinals are generally noted for their influence in the Church, their pastoral and theological vision, as well as their ability to bring together different sensibilities.

The conclave that will elect the next pope will begin on Wednesday, May 7 at 4:30 PM. The 135 cardinals under the age of 80 will gather in the Sistine Chapel to vote. The conclave was announced following the fifth general congregation, which took place on Monday, April 28.